The Stalled US-Ukraine Rare Minerals Deal
Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Deal on Rare Earth Minerals
On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine held a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, aiming to sign a deal allowing the US to access Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nonetheless, the discussions took a surprising shift, resulting in a tense argument with Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky left prematurely, the White House confirmed that no deal was finalized.
Zelensky had earlier conveyed hope that this “initial” agreement might lead to enhanced collaboration. Yet, he acknowledged that Ukraine still hadn’t obtained any security assurances from the US—a crucial point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the aid given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that Europe should assume the main role in ensuring Kyiv’s security.
What Conditions Are in the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal of Ukraine declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft version of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. The arrangement proposed the establishment of an “investment fund” aimed at aiding Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on “equal terms.” Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.
The US, in turn, pledged a long-term financial commitment to fostering a stable and prosperous Ukraine, subject to US law. The agreement also stipulated that the US would own the maximum share of the fund permitted under American regulations.
Conflicts Regarding Mineral Rights and Financial Conditions
It seems that the discord between Trump and Zelensky intensified due to particular aspects of the minerals agreement. Initially, the US proposed a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral assets, which Zelensky declined. Sources suggest that this demand was subsequently revoked.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, claiming on Tuesday that the US has given Ukraine roughly $300 billion to $350 billion in aid and that a minerals agreement could help recoup this expenditure. Conversely, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US support totals $119 billion.
Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?
A key issue for Zelensky has been obtaining clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he affirmed that no such assurances had been secured.
“I wanted a clause on security guarantees for Ukraine because it is crucial,” Zelensky stated.
In response to queries about potentially walking away if security assurances weren’t included, he answered: “I seek a NATO pathway or an equivalent solution. Without security guarantees, a ceasefire won’t be feasible, and nothing will operate effectively.”
Although there are no explicit security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees to secure enduring peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not complete the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus regarding security assurances and figured out how to incorporate them into the initial deal. On the other hand, Trump minimized the notion of direct US security guarantees, asserting that Europe should now assume those duties. He further mentioned that having American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”
The concept of a minerals agreement was originally introduced by Zelensky as a means to provide the US with a tangible incentive to continue supporting Ukraine. Trump has suggested that, in exchange for mineral access, Ukraine would secure the “right to continue fighting” and that the US would keep supplying military equipment and ammunition “until a deal with Russia is reached.”
The US president has also asserted that Russia is amenable to the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this notion.
When Is the Agreement Expected to Be Signed?
Trump initially stated that the deal would be signed at Friday’s White House meeting. While Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that a final version of the agreement had been prepared, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, clarified that only a framework agreement was set to be signed.
No agreement was signed, though. Instead, the meeting escalated into a clash between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one juncture, an irate Trump accused Zelensky of not showing enough gratitude for US aid and cautioned that he was “risking World War Three.”
“You need to finalize a deal, or we’re done,” Trump allegedly told Zelensky. “You lack leverage.”
In reply, Zelensky emphasized that “no compromises” could be made with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump later took to Truth Social, alleging that Zelensky had “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and remarked: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
Currently, it remains uncertain whether the agreement will be signed or when it might occur.
Ukraine’s Abundance of Minerals
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine’s reserves account for about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This comprises around 19 million metric tons of verified graphite reserves, positioning Ukraine as one of the top five global providers of this essential mineral for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.
Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.
Complicating matters further, some of Ukraine’s mineral-rich territories are currently under Russian control. According to Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, mineral deposits worth an estimated $350 billion remain in Russian-occupied areas.
Another obstacle to mineral extraction is the widespread presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that around 25% of Ukraine’s landmass is contaminated, particularly in the war-torn eastern regions.
Time poses another issue. Even if the agreement reaches completion, it may take years before the mining and export of these resources deliver concrete economic advantages.
“These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,” explained Mylovanov. “Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.”
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to comment on the reported details of the US-Ukraine deal. However, on Monday, he told Russian state television that Moscow is prepared to “offer” mineral resources to American companies for joint ventures, including mining in Russia’s “new territories”—a reference to occupied areas of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement, asserting that Russia “indisputably possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“Regarding the new territories, we are prepared to welcome foreign collaborators for the development of these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he added.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested on Tuesday that the situation remains fluid: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”